COVID-19 infections lessening in Chinese province of Hubei, but researchers are concerned about a second wave

According to a March 30 report in the journal Nature, 60 days after Hubei province went into lockdown, authorities are lifting travel restrictions.

Although there has only been one new case in Hubei since March 18, scientists and others are concerned that a second wave of infections could happen.

Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, told Nature that if a second wave comes, he expects it by the end of April. He said, “it’s time to relax the lockdown, but we need to be alert for a potential second wave of infections.” 

European nations and the United States have restricted travel, closed schools, and shut down nonessential businesses to control the spread of COVID-19. A second wave of COVID-19 in Hubei might be a foreshadow of what is to come around the world when restrictions are lifted.  Resurgence could force governments to extend restrictions which would delay economic recovery.

China will continue extensive testing, contact tracing, isolation of individuals with COVID-19, and social distancing to stop the spread. Chinese provinces issue residents a QR code that reveals their health details and travel history. Based on this information they are assigned a color that prescribes privileges for travel to hospitals, residential areas, public transportation, and between provinces.

Countries that did not practice extensive testing as part of their containment strategy may have a harder time controlling the virus and may face additional challenges as they return to what life was like before the pandemic happened.

“The tension between health, protecting the economy and emotional well-being will vex every government for the foreseeable future,” Gabriel Leung, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Hong Kong, told Nature. 

Although the restrictions in Hubei have been eased, life isn’t back to normal yet. Schools and childcare centers are closed, and travel was restricted through April 8.

Leung said that if 50 to 75 percent of people were now immune to COVID-19 the virus would not easily spread in the community. Unfortunately, those immune to infection are estimated below 10% even in Wuhan one of the most affected areas of the globe.

Researchers are calling this a ‘wait and see’ moment and urging that extreme caution be taken.