N.C. State team notes connections between global warming, U.S. timber industry

There could be cause for concern for the future of the U.S. timber industry after a North Carolina State study believes the amount of trees used for timber could drop by 23% by the year 2100.

According to a news release, the study led by Justin Baker, a N.C. State University associate professor of forestry and environmental resources, believes climate change will be to blame. 

"Many past studies show a pretty optimistic picture for forests under climate change because they see a big boost in forest growth from additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere,” Baker said in the release. 

“The effect that carbon dioxide has on photosynthesis in some of those models tends to outweigh the losses you see from precipitation and temperature induced changes in forest productivity and tree mortality," he added. "We have a model that is specific to individual tree species and that allows us to better understand how climate factors influence growth rates and mortality.” 

Baker and his team used computer modeling to predict how 94 different tree species would fare through six situations dealing with global warming through the end of the century. Two different economic scenarios were worked into the study. 

According to the release, the team found as temperatures rise, high tree mortality and slow growth will contribute to a drop in inventory. Two major timber supply regions, the Southeast and South-Central parts of the country, could see a 40% drop in inventory by 2095 compared to a "baseline scenario." 

The growth of more heat-tolerant trees and higher death rates among trees with larger initial harvests could actually boost the tree inventory in the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Southwest, the study found. 

However, when looking at all regions combined, these researchers found a 3% to 23% total loss of tree inventory when compared to the baseline. They also believe the amount of lost carbon stored in U.S. forests could reach as high as $5.5 billion a year. 

According to the release, the study also noted that climate change could have an impact on the economics of the forest products industry, ranging from a loss of up to $2.6 billion a year, or 2.5% of the industry's current value, or a more than $200 million boost. 

Even with their discovery, Baker knows that in order to fully grasp what the future holds, "a lot more work needs to be done to get a good handle on climate change and forestry.”