When Did the First Covid-19 Case Arise? a New Analysis Suggests Much Earlier Than Thought

Using methods from conservation science, a new analysis suggests that the first case of COVID-19 arose between early October and mid-November, 2019 in China, with the most likely date of origin being November 17. The study was performed by David Roberts and Jeremy Rossman of the University of Kent, U.K., and Ivan Jarić of the Biology Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences. These findings were presented in the open-access journal PLOS Pathogens on 24th June 2021.

The origins of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remain unclear. The first officially identified case occurred in early December 2019. However, mounting evidence suggests that the original case may have emerged even earlier.

To help clarify the timing of the onset of the pandemic, Roberts and colleagues repurposed a mathematical model originally developed by conservation scientists to determine the date of extinction of a species, based on recorded sightings of the species. For this analysis, they reversed the method to determine the date when COVID-19 most likely originated, according to when some of the earliest known cases occurred in 203 countries.

The analysis suggests that the first case occurred in China between early October and mid-November of 2019. The first case most likely arose on November 17, and the disease spread globally by January 2020. These findings support growing evidence that the pandemic arose sooner and grew more rapidly than officially accepted.

Publication: David Roberts, et al., When did the first COVID-19 case arise? Novel analysis suggests much earlier, more rapid spread than confirmed cases imply, Biology Centre CAS (2023). DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009620

Original Story Source: Czech Academy of Sciences