UEA Professor Le Quéré: 'We are at a turning point and must not allow world events to distract us from the urgent and sustained need to cut our emissions'

A new report by the Global Carbon Project science team reveals that global carbon emissions in 2022 reached record levels, posing a severe threat to efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C. If current emission rates continue, there is a 50% chance that the 1.5°C warming threshold will be surpassed in just nine years. 

The report highlights a projected total of 40.6 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2022, driven by fossil fuel emissions and land-use changes. The study's researchers, including those from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia, CICERO and Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, emphasize the urgent need for significant action to reduce emissions and combat climate change.

“We are at a turning point and must not allow world events to distract us from the urgent and sustained need to cut our emissions to stabilize the global climate and reduce cascading risks," Professor Corinne Le Quéré from the UEA's School of Environmental Sciences said. 

Global carbon emissions have surged to unprecedented levels, presenting a critical challenge in the race to limit global warming to 1.5°C, according to the Global Carbon Project science team. 

The team's new report, soon to be published as the 17th edition, paints a bleak picture of the current state of carbon emissions and their impact on the climate crisis. The report reveals that global CO2 emissions in 2022 are projected to reach a staggering 40.6 billion tonnes, primarily driven by fossil fuel emissions that are expected to rise by 1.0% compared to 2021. 

This places emissions just slightly above the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Furthermore, land-use changes, including deforestation, are projected to contribute 3.9 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2022. 

The study highlights that emissions from coal and oil have increased compared to 2021, with oil being the largest contributor to the overall growth in emissions. The resurgence of oil emissions can be attributed to the delayed rebound of international aviation following COVID-19 restrictions.

Among major emitters, the 2022 outlook is mixed. China and the European Union are projected to see a decline in emissions by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively, while the United States and India are expected to experience an increase of 1.5% and 6%. The rest of the world combined is projected to witness a rise of 1.7% in emissions. 

The report also reveals alarming statistics regarding the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming. With emissions remaining at 2022 levels, there is a reduced carbon budget of 380 billion tonnes to have a 50% likelihood of staying within the 1.5°C warming threshold. Furthermore, to limit warming to 2°C, the remaining carbon budget is estimated to be 1230 billion tonnes. 

Reaching zero CO2 emissions by 2050 would require an annual decrease of approximately 1.4 billion tonnes, a level comparable to the observed decline in emissions during the pandemic-induced lockdowns in 2020. These figures underscore the magnitude of the action needed to combat climate change effectively. The researchers emphasize the crucial role of land and ocean in absorbing and storing carbon. However, climate change has hindered the growth of these carbon sinks. 

Over the past decade, the ocean sink has experienced a growth reduction of approximately 4%, while the land sink has been reduced by an estimated 17%. The research team acknowledges the slight slowdown in the rate of increasing fossil emissions but warns that it falls far short of the necessary decrease required.

As world leaders convene at COP27 in Egypt to address the climate crisis, the findings of this report serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for bold and meaningful action. Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study, emphasizes the importance of reducing emissions rapidly. 

While the report highlights the challenges posed by the pandemic and global energy crises, Le Quéré stresses the opportunity to reverse the trend through increased investment in clean energy and reforestation efforts.

Halting deforestation and expanding forests present significant avenues to reduce emissions and enhance carbon removal. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to climb, surpassing 417.2 parts per million in 2022, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels, the need for immediate and sustained action becomes even more evident. 

The Global Carbon Budget report, compiled by over 100 scientists and based on rigorous methodologies, provides a vital annual update on carbon emissions, serving as a crucial tool to monitor progress in climate action.