Paulo Brando: 'Tropical ecosystems can resist a lot of climatic change' but must be protected

A decrease in tropical forest biomass due to climate change could lead to increased carbon emissions, which could accelerate global warming, a new study by the Yale School of the Environment's Maria del Rosario Uribe and Paulo Brando stated.

The study has shed light on the alarming impact of climate change on tropical forest ecosystems, according to research published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study showed that alterations in climate patterns are leading to a decrease in tropical forest biomass, potentially resulting in heightened carbon emissions that could accelerate global warming. 

 "Wetter regions have much more biomass, or carbon, than drier regions," del Rosario Uribe wrote. "If wetter tropical areas shrink due to climate change, then you're likely to lose the massive amount of carbon they store as well."

Tropical forests account for more than half of the world's above-ground carbon found in their biomass, encompassing vines, trunks, and leaves. However, the study highlights that these vital ecosystems are facing a reduction in biomass, severely compromising their capacity to capture and store carbon, the release said. The researchers attributed the decline to the prolonged and intense dry periods triggered by climate change. The research team employed satellite maps to analyze above-ground biomass in the tropical regions of South America, Africa, and Asia.

Incorporating factors such as fire, drought, and soil interactions, the models reveal an empirical relationship between above-ground biomass and climate change, as researchers emphasized the importance of considering these factors when projecting the potential outcomes of climate change on tropical forests. If greenhouse gas emissions from human activities continue at current rates, for example, the losses of stored carbon in tropical forests could nearly double by the year 2100, the release said. 

This startling revelation underscores the urgency to implement climate policy initiatives like the Paris Climate Agreement, aiming to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and protect tropical forests. del Rosario Uribe hopes that their research data will strengthen the case for preserving tropical forests in global climate policy. 

"We must take immediate action to safeguard these critical ecosystems," she said. 

Brando adds a nuanced perspective, adding that "the losses due to climate change are not massive but are concentrated in a key specific region of the Southeastern Amazon," he said. While the overall losses might not be staggering, the significance lies in the potential impact on a pivotal region that houses a considerable amount of carbon – nearly equivalent to 20 years of global human emissions, the report read.

"The future of these ecosystems hinges on how well we safeguard them from destructive human activities," Brando said. Preserving the carbon sinks can have a profound impact on mitigating climate change and sustaining a stable environment for generations to come, the report stated.